Report # Nano-825
Published May 15, 2015

A year ago the outlook for OLED lighting seemed to brighten a bit, anticipating that new capacity build-outs and continued development would enable higher outputs and lower costs, and finally start to unlock broad market demand. Unfortunately these efforts largely haven’t panned out: LG Chem has pushed out its planned expansion, Konica Minolta did ramp but we believe with disappointing results so far, and Philips is getting out of OLED lighting (and lighting components entirely).

On the end market side of the equation, one can still find reasons to be encouraged. OLED lighting products are showing up in home improvement stores for just $200, instead of the thousands they cost just a couple of years ago. The first vehicles with OLED lighting are expected to arrive within the next 12-24 months. And there are always occasional opportunities to be found in unique showcase installations.

But the real big end-market fish for OLED lighting — office and commercial lighting, and low-cost residential — remain frustratingly elusive, still unable to broadly appreciate and embrace OLED lighting’s value proposition. The issue seems to be less about technology and performance improvements, and more about persistently high costs and pricing — which is why the aforementioned manufacturing expansions and improvements (and more of them) are so critical.

The OLED lighting sector is also stuck in a loop. Manufacturers are waiting to commit until there is enough real or imminent end-market demand — but demand largely will be lured by vastly cheaper products enabled through production improvements and lower costs. The question now seems to be which strategy to embrace for the near- to mid-term: press on and believe, stand pat and wait, or give up and get out? All these cases can be made.

This latest report from n-tech Research revisits our assumptions and expectations on the evolution of end-markets for the OLED lighting sector, evaluating the challenges still standing between OLED lighting and key end markets, especially general illumination in offices and low-cost residential lighting. We include eight-year (volume and value) projections for all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with conventional lighting technologies. This report also analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, from technology development and manufacturing to key partnerships

Executive Summary
  • E.1: Countdown to Mass-Market Launch
  • E.2 Resetting the Timer: Changes from the previous report
  • E.3 Update on End Markets
  • E.3.1 General Illumination: Whistling While We Wait
  • E.3.2 The Essence of It: Costs and Timing
  • E.3.3 Rev Up Engines
  • E.3.4 Showcase Projects: Still the Stars
  • E.4 OLED Lighting Technology Update: What's the Story?
  • E.4.1 Product Performance Progress
  • E.4.2 Any Help from OLED Displays and TVs?
  • E.5 OLED Lighting by Region: Our Thoughts on Where, Who, and When
  • E.5.1 Korea
  • E.5.2 Japan
  • E.5.3 China
  • E.5.4 Taiwan
  • E.5.5 Europe
  • E.5.6 U.S.
  • E.6 Summary of Eight-Year Market Forecasts for OLED Lighting Markets
Chapter One: Introduction
  • 1.1 Background to this Report
  • 1.1.1 What’s the Matter with OLED Lighting?
  • 1.1.2 OLED Lighting’s Success as a Niche Business
  • 1.1.3 Getting Out of a Niche:  OLED Lighting’s Perpetual Failure
  • 1.1.4 Of Value Shifts and Champions
  • 1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
  • 1.3 Methodology of this Report
  • 1.4 Economic Assumptions
  • 1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: OLED Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials
  • 2.1 OLED Lighting Performance: Status and Targets
  • 2.1.1 Balancing OLED Lighting Performance Parameters
  • 2.1.2 Lifetimes
  • 2.1.3 Luminous Efficacy
  • 2.1.4 Luminance
  • 2.1.5 OLED Lighting Performance and End Markets
  • 2.1.6 A Word about OLED Device Drivers
  • 2.2 Key Issues in Manufacturing:  Where Do We Go from Here?
  • 2.2.1 Where are Costs Now?
  • 2.2.2 Choose Your Own OLED Adventure
  • 2.2.3 OLED Production Priorities: Old and New
  • 2.3 Generation Next: Migration to Large Panels
  • 2.3.1 Issues Still to be Resolved
  • 2.4 OLED R&D To-Do List
  • 2.4.1 Light Extraction Options
  • 2.5 Process Progress Report
  • 2.5.1 Printing Path Progressions
  • 2.6 Update on Flexible Panels
  • 2.6.1 Research Projects for Flexible OLED Panels
  • 2.6.2 Ongoing Research into Flexible OLED Lighting
  • 2.7 Materials Update
  • 2.7.1 Setting Priorities Straight
  • 2.7.2 The Search for Better Blue Continues
  • 2.7.3 TADF Emitters
  • 2.74 Other Research into OLED Materials
  • 2.8 Substrates
  • 2.8.1 Low-cost Float Glass
  • 2.8.2 Integrated Substrates
  • 2.8.3 Flexible Glass and Foils
  • 2.9 Encapsulation
  • 2.9.1 Who's Doing What
  • 2.10 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Three: Automotive, the OLED Lighting Pace Car
  • 3.1 How OLED Lighting Adds Value for Vehicles
  • 3.2 How Automakers Buy New Technology
  • 3.2.1 Timeframes and Alliances
  • 3.2.2 Hidden Value
  • 3.3 OLED Lighting, Smart Glass and Smart Lighting
  • 3.3.1 Smart Auto Lighting and the Implications for OLEDs
  • 3.3.2 Smart Auto Glass Deployment in Automotive
  • 3.4 How Automobile Industry Requirements Impact the OLED Lighting Sector
  • 3.4.1 Performance Tradeoffs for OLED Lighting in Automotive
  • 3.5 Where OLED Lighting Makes Sense in Automotive Applications
  • 3.5.1 External Lighting: Prime Real Estate
  • 3.5.2 Internal Lighting: Coming to the Forefront
  • 3.6 Flexible OLEDs: A Natural Fit for Automotive?
  • 3.7 Update: Car Makers' Plans for OLED Lighting
  • 3.7.1 BMW
  • 3.7.2 Audi
  • 3.7.3 Volkswagen
  • 3.7.4 Japanese Automakers
  • 3.8 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Automotive
  • 3.8.1 Summary of Our Thoughts on OLED Lighting in Automotive
  • 3.8.2 Forecasts for Automotive Lighting Applications
  • 3.9 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Four: Offices and OLED Lighting, Still Hunting the  Killer App
  • 4.1 Why Office Lighting Remains an Elusive Target
  • 4.2 Retelling the Story
  • 4.2.1 Hidden Assumptions
  • 4.3 Examples of OLED Office Lighting
  • 4.3.1 Conference Room
  • 4.3.2 Desktop Lamps
  • 4.3.3 Collaborative Area
  • 4.3.4 Washroom
  • 4.4 OLED Lighting and Retail
  • 4.4.1 Examples of OLED Lighting in Retail Shops
  • 4.4.2 Our Take on Retail
  • 4.5 Medical Lighting
  • 4.6 Small Slice: Architectural Lighting
  • 4.6.1 Heritage Lighting
  • 4.7 Forecasts for OLED Lighting in Commercial Applications
  • 4.8 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Five: Homeward Bound: OLED Lighting and Residential/Consumer Lighting
  • 5.1 The Problem of Pull: Where Have We Heard This Before?
  • 5.1.1 How Businesses and Consumers Purchase Lighting
  • 5.1.2 OLEDs vs. LEDs: Why Consumer Education Still Matters
  • 5.2 Reaching the Masses: Retail Access and Prices Finally Arrive
  • 5.3 Suppliers Pushing OLED Lighting's Consumer Messaging
  • 5.3.1 Acuity
  • 5.3.2 LG Chem
  • 5.3.3 Philips/OLEDWorks
  • 5.4 Still Quietly In the Market?
  • 5.4.1 Lumiotec
  • 5.4.2 Blackbody
  • 5.5 Start-ups On the OLED Lighting Scene
  • 5.5.1 OTI Lumionics
  • 5.5.2 Alkilu
  • 5.6 Niche Consumer Markets for Consumer OLED Lighting
  • 5.6.1 Lighting for Heritage Houses
  • 5.6.2 OLED Lighting and Aquariums
  • 5.7 Luxury Product Conundrum: Embrace or Escape?
  • 5.8 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Residential
  • 5.9 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Six:  Custom Large-Scale and Outdoor Installations
  • 6.1 Large Installations: OLED Lighting's Newsmakers
  • 6.1.1 Spotlight: Galleries and Museums
  • 6.2 What's New in Big OLED Lighting Projects
  • 6.2.1 Konica Minolta
  • 6.2.2 LG Chem
  • 6.2.3 Philips
  • 6.2.4 Lumiotec
  • 6.2.5 Audi and Mystery Supplier
  • 6.2.6 Umage
  • 6.3 Our Takeaway: Still OLED Lighting's Showcase, for Now
  • 6.4 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Custom Large-Scale Installations
  • 6.5 OLED Lighting and Outdoor Applications: Still in the Shadows
  • 6.5.1 Key Issue #1: Performance
  • 6.5.2 Key Issue #2: Encapsulation
  • 6.5.3 Key Issue #3: Scale and Output
  • 6.5.4 Key Issue #4: The LED Buzzsaw
  • 6.6 Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting in Outdoor Installations
  • 6.7 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Seven: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Lighting
  • 7.1 Our Overall Thoughts: Where OLED Lighting Is and Needs to Be
  • 7.2 General Forecasting Assumptions
  • 7.2.1 Production Capacity and Utilization Estimates
  • 7.2.2 Panel Sizes
  • 7.2.3 Pricing Estimates
  • 7.3 Into the Sunset: Summary of Forecasts for OLED Lighting Kits and Samples
  • 7.4 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Lighting Panels
  • 7.5 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Luminaires
  • 7.6 Summary of Forecasts for OLED Lighting—Grand Totals
  • Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
  • About the Author
List of Exhibits
    • Exhibit E-1: Japanese Companies in OLED Lighting
    • Exhibit E-2: Summary of OLED Panel Shipments and Revenue
    • Exhibit E-3: Summary of OLED Luminaires Shipments and Revenue
    • Exhibit E-4: Summary of Total OLED Lighting Market ($ million)
    • Exhibit 2-1: OLED Light Performance, Current Status and Future Targets
    • Exhibit 2-2: Panel and Luminaire Efficacy Targets
    • Exhibit 2-3: OLED Lighting Performance and Addressable Markets
    • Exhibit 2-4: OLED Lighting Deposition Process Choices
    • Exhibit 3-1: How OLED Lighting Might Add Value to Cars
    • Exhibit 3-2: How Automobile Industry Requirements Impact the OLED Lighting Sector
Exhibit 7-6: Value of OLED Luminaire Market  ($ Millions)
  • Exhibit 3-3: OLED Lighting Applications in Automotive
  • Exhibit 3-4: Eight-Year Forecasts of Automotive Lighting Applications
  • Exhibit 4-1: OLED Lighting's Value In Retail Use
  • Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting in Office and Other Commercial Lighting Applications
  • Exhibit 5-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting in Residential LightingApplications
  • Exhibit 6-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED lighting in Large-scale Custom Installations
  • Exhibit 6-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of Non-automotive Outdoor OLED Lighting
  • Exhibit 7-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Panels in Designer Kits
  • Exhibit 7-2: Number of OLED Lighting Panels Sold (Millions)
  • Exhibit 7-3: Total Area of OLED Lighting Panels Sold (000s of square meters)
  • Exhibit 7-4: Value of OLED Lighting Panel Market  ($ Millions)
  • Exhibit 7-5: Number of OLED Luminaires (000s)
  • Exhibit 7-6: Value of OLED Luminaire Market  ($ Millions)
  • Exhibit 7-7: Grand Total OLED Lighting Market ($ Millions)
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OLED Lighting 2015-2022: Reassessing Markets and Momentum

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